Gospodarcze przyspieszenie w Chinach?

Od zakończenia dorocznego Trzeciego Plenum Komitetu Centralnego Komunistycznej Partii Chin, giełdy w Państwie Środka dynamicznie rosną. Czy Chiny unikną spowolnienia i pociągną światową gospodarkę w przyszłym roku?

Profesor David Zweig z Uniwersytetu w Hong Kongu stwierdził, że końcowy dokument Plenum jest podobny do wstępu do książki kucharskiej. Trudno na jego podstawie określić jakie będą składniki potraw, a co dopiero, jak będą smakowały dania. Jednak większość analityków zinterpretowała końcowy komunikat o wiele bardziej jednoznacznie – jako wstęp do zdecydowanego pogłębienia rynkowych reform. Deutsche Bank prognozuje na tej podstawie przyspieszenie do ponad 8 proc. wzrostu PKB w przyszłym roku oraz o 0,5 pkt proc. wyższy wzrost w kolejnych latach. Jak Chiny miałyby tego dokonać?

Trzy filary władzy partii

Wiele osób na Zachodzie przyzwyczaiło się do traktowania Chin niemal jak gospodarki rynkowej z tą drobną różnicą, że nie odbywają się tam co cztery lata demokratyczne wybory. Tymczasem władza Komunistycznej Partii Chin ma bardzo silne podstawy ekonomiczne. Przede wszystkim do państwa (a w praktyce – do partii) należy ziemia. Jej „sprzedaż” stanowi główne źródło dochodu dla regionalnych ekip rządzących. Druga rzecz to przedsiębiorstwa państwowe, które także są partyjną domeną dobrze chronioną przed zagraniczną i krajową konkurencją. Trzeci segment władzy partii to sektor bankowy, który ściśle współpracuje z państwowymi przedsiębiorstwami, dostarczając im taniego kapitału. W efekcie specyficznej symbiozy banków i przedsiębiorstw państwowych sektor prywatny, który obejmuje niemal 70 proc. gospodarki, dostaje zaledwie 20% kredytów bankowych.

Ubocznym efektem tego zjawiska jest bardzo niskie oprocentowanie depozytów – średnio nieco poniżej inflacji (obecnie ok. 3 proc w skali roku). Pochodną wyzyskiwania depozytariuszy przez monopol państwowych banków jest pojawienie się bardzo rozwiniętego nieoficjalnego sektora depozytowo-kredytowego. Oprocentowanie depozytów jest tam znacznie wyższe, a kredyty udzielane są nawet na 20 proc. w skali roku. Jednocześnie w państwowych bankach przedsiębiorstwa państwowe mogą liczyć na oprocentowanie trzy razy niższe. Priorytetem wydaje się więc być reforma sektora finansowego: liberalizacja oprocentowania depozytów i wzrost konkurencyjności w oficjalnym sektorze bankowym, co w efekcie powinno doprowadzić do skierowania kapitału do bardziej wydajnego sektora prywatnego.

Obserwatorzy gospodarki chińskiej wymieniają także inne sfery, w których potrzebne są pilne zmiany. Mówi się o trudnej sytuacji robotników, którzy przeprowadzili się ze wsi do miast, ale nie mają w nich praktycznie żadnych praw – nie mogą korzystać z państwowej opieki zdrowotnej a ich dzieci wedle litery prawa powinny nadal chodzić do szkoły na wsi. Kolejna kwestia to fatalny stan finansów publicznych lokalnych rządów. Te mocno się zadłużyły w ostatnich latach dla sfinansowania projektów infrastrukturalnych i mieszkaniowych, co grozi w dalszej perspektywie kryzysem finansów publicznych. Niezbędna wydaje się podwyżka podatków lokalnych tak, by można było sfinansować z nich nie tylko obsługę długu, ale także świadczenia publiczne dla przybyłych ze wsi migrantów. Listę chińskich problemów dopełnia sztywny kurs walutowy podtrzymujący nadmiernie rozwinięty sektor eksportowy i uniemożliwiający swobodny przepływ kapitału.

Co może się zmienić, a co musi zostać po staremu?

Wszystkie wymienione problemy są oczywiście do rozwiązania. Przedsiębiorstwa państwowe i banki można sprywatyzować, a stopy procentowe i kurs walutowy może ustalać rynek. Można znieść znienawidzone prawa meldunkowe i wycofać się z polityki jednego dziecka. Pytanie tylko, czy partia rządząca zgodzi się na taki kierunek zmian. Doświadczenia wielu krajów, które podjęły wysiłek budowy gospodarki rynkowej, opisane szczegółowo w znakomitej książce Darona Acemoglu i Jamesa Robinsona „Dlaczego narody upadają”, wskazują, że nie jest to prawdopodobne. Budowa instytucji gospodarki rynkowej zawsze napotyka na sprzeciw grup uprzywilejowanych. Może on być przezwyciężony tylko jeśli sformuje się dostatecznie silna pluralistyczna koalicja, która byłaby skłonna poprzeć reformy wzmacniające własność prywatną. W przeciwnym wypadku zamiast prawdziwej zmiany, ma miejsce jedynie kolejna odsłona tego samego systemu.

W Chinach decydującą siłę stanowią partia i armia. Nie ma innych ośrodków władzy, a wpływy zagraniczne są bardzo niewielkie. Dygnitarze partyjni mają się dużo lepiej niż reszta społeczeństwa, a ich dobrobyt jest ściśle związany z systemem, w którym funkcjonują. Gdyby nie monopol przedsiębiorstw państwowych i banków czy szerokie uprawnienia urzędników, dające dochody z łapówek, pozycja ekonomiczna partii byłaby o wiele słabsza. Mogłoby to w konsekwencji doprowadzić do utraty przez nią władzy i dalszego zubożenia członków partii w stosunku do reszty społeczeństwa. Z tego powodu właśnie od dziesięciu lat jedynie mówi się o reformach bez podejmowania znaczących kroków w kierunku ich wprowadzania.

Spodziewałbym się, że chińskie władze będą starały się minimalizować zarówno ekonomiczny jak i polityczny koszt reform. Innymi słowy będą się starały, by elity partyjne mogły zachować przywileje przy zachowaniu względnego spokoju społecznego. Taki kierunek wyklucza daleko idące zmiany w sektorze finansowym czy prywatyzację przedsiębiorstw państwowych albo ziemi. Pozwala co najwyżej liczyć na stopniowe zrównanie w prawach migrantów i stałych rezydentów miast oraz na złagodzenie polityki jednego dziecka. Załóżmy jednak, że kolejna faza reform w Chinach rozpocznie się tak, jak przekonują optymiści. Jakie będą tego skutki?

W długim okresie na pewno bardzo pozytywne zarówno dla chińskiej jak i światowej gospodarki. Jednak w okresie przejściowym co najmniej 2-3 lat nieuchronne jest znaczące wyhamowanie wzrostu gospodarczego. Reformy bowiem uderzą mocno w przedsiębiorstwa państwowe i w chiński eksport, co pociągnie za sobą falę bankructw i zwolnień. Niewykluczony jest też kryzys finansów publicznych, jeśli rząd będzie aktywnie pomagać upadającym firmom bądź bankom. Spowolnienie chińskiej gospodarki będzie więc w średnim terminie sporym wyzwaniem dla gospodarki światowej, szczególnie dla krajów, gdzie znaczącą gałęzią jest eksport surowców. Paradoksalnie więc na krótką metę reformy wcale nie są takie dobre, zwłaszcza że rynek zdaje się nie doceniać skali kosztów, jakie im będą towarzyszyć. Inwestorzy w przyszłym roku powinni uważnie śledzić, jak rozwija się sytuacja w Chinach.

Maciej Bitner
Główny Ekonomista Wealth Solutions
Kontakt dla mediów:
Piotr Suchodolski, piotr.suchodolski@wealth.pl
tel. kom. 512 965 658
 

Powyższy tekst stanowi wyraz osobistych opinii i poglądów autora i nie powinien być traktowany jako rekomendacja kupna bądź sprzedaży papierów wartościowych.

Dodano: 2013-12-10 23:57:12

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2016-07-11 07:21:09

Believing in what you do is that most important step when creating a successful start-up business. But sometimes your great idea comes with little to no money to get it started. Great credit for a business loan or a huge amount of money in savings is not always needed if you are able to start thinking outside of the box. americanbusinessicon.net

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Family pets are greatly affected when separated from loved ones. Your best friend, your cat or dog, will have a more meaningful existence when you realize the impact of your absence. pet-supplement.net

Buying a car is a big financial step that has to be thought over. The car finance options are few but they allow you to make the most appropriate decision and find affordable solutions according to your needs. connectfinance.net

This article presents the problem and challenge technology is creating for the human condition: Inhumanity. Technology is brilliant, but cold, lacking heart and soul; the fundamental essence of human qualities. We present one unique and effective process designed to bridge the gap between the needs of human development and ever progressing, high-speed technology: The Alliance. microtechnica.org

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Knowing the industry you wish to be part of is important as well as understanding the target/customer market that suits your service or product. The demographics are important too, for example gender, age, background, knowledge etc. Having an idea of what you want in the way of size and of staffing or if you want to do it alone needs to be considered too. businesscreditcardapplications.net

There are four aspects that are being considered when you use PEST as your analytical tool in your business. This article will help you in understanding one of them and that is the technological PEST. geotechnet.org

Natural skin care and associated natural skin care products are becoming increasingly more popular. There are however many traps consumers are falling into and this article is written to help you understand how and why you should choose and use natural skin and personal care products. skincarepearls.net

It has rightly been said by fashion gurus that year 2010 is and will continue to be an interesting and exciting year for fashion. With the end of the global financial crisis and recession trend, an upheaval in the fashion world was seen in the beginning of the year and this is continuing. fashionismydrug.org

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2016-07-11 07:20:48

Although people enter the real estate game everyday, many agents are clueless on what it takes to be a successful real estate agent and how to keep their sanity. This article is going to give you some guidelines and rules. realestateagentreviews.net

A career in the fashion industry sounds glamorous and lucrative. Have you consider getting into the fashion industry, but might think that you cannot manage it? There are so many different roles and positions that you can play in the fashion world. One does not necessarily be a fashion designer but still be able to have a very success career in the fashion industry. fashionableway.org

It is vitally important that commercial truck drivers have some type of medical care plan due to the high rate of illnesses and injuries that they sustain. Most commercial truck drivers health is not the best and could be improved through better food choices. Typically, many truckers diets consist of far too many unhealthy food choices. mdphysicianhealthprogram.org

A lot of companies and people claim that if you join them, you can travel for free... or even better: GET PAID TO TRAVEL. But, is this true? What kind of business pays someone to travel? How can everyday people get paid to travel... or travel for free? advancetourandtravel.net

Australia's public health care system strives to ensure that every citizen has access to quality medical services. Although Medicare guarantees every Australian will see a health care practitioner even when no private health plan is in place, waiting times for certain procedures, including elective surgery, can be extremely long. ehealthplanners.org

If you plan to become a travel agent or want to learn how to start a travel agency from home, you'd be glad to know that there are plenty of agencies that offer certifications, trainings, and the chance to own your very own travel agency. A travel agent's job functions may vary from assisting with booking/selling reservations to referring people to travel booking sites, where an agent receives commission. travellersbay.net

Where will you go when the time comes to say good-bye to your beloved pet? Most people will go to their trusted Pet Care Provider who will hopefully usher them through this crossroads of emotion and decision making with love, support and dignity. petsspark.org

Not long ago, there was a time when no one could have ever thought of buying a used auto or car part to revamp a vehicle except when there was no other option. However, if we look at the present scenario the value of used parts has gained a considerable attention. In fact, today it is one of the few concepts with which everyone wants to be familiar with. directoryautomotive.net

Real estate financing is a little trickier to find if you have bad credit, but it is in some ways easier to finance due to the collateral being the home. Some of the big considerations that are looked at when trying to get a mortgage loan with bad credit include income, home or real estate insurance that you have to purchase, how much your down payment is, and any references from past landlords that you may have. teachingfinance.net

Home improvement in UK can provide you with a safer and more comfortable home along with improving equity in your home. There are various loan types for home improvement like refinancing, second mortgage, unsecured loan etc. Weigh your options carefully before you make your final decision. Home improvement should be carefully done keeping in mind the purpose. homeimprovementhut.net

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Traveling abroad is an art. It requires intellect to plan, courage to enact, and perseverance to endure. When planning your dream trip, you must walk a fine line between over- analysis and not-so-blissful ignorance (summer in Sudan, anyone?). caribbeanhoneymoontravel.org

Looking for an interior designer or interior decorator can be overwhelming if you are not sure which designer you need for the scope of your project. Are you building, renovating or moving and need professional advice? Are you planning to sell your property and not sure how to get ready for the first inspection? interiorideas.org

Shopping anywhere in British Columbia is an experience in itself and one of the more popular things to do, other than the many outdoor activities. If you are a shopper and want to get the information on British Columbia shopping malls, retail shops, store coupons then this article help you for getting online information on these topics. onlinedealsshopping.org

Mystery shopping is an excellent way to make extra money. In fact, some people make a full time living doing it. There are many mystery shopping companies that will pay you to shop, eat at restaurants and take part in focus groups. theweddingshop.org

This article will give you the basic points to consider when putting together or revamping your corporate travel program. Does your travel program take in to account these important elements? Leverage your budget for all its worth by following these tips. airlinetravelinsurance.net

One creative way to get started investing in real estate is to use a lease option. The biggest advantage of using lease options to invest in real estate is -- control. This method of investing, basically gives the investor the right to possess -- be in control of -- and profit from a property without owning it. charterrealestate.net

In commercial real estate, you will undertake a variety of presentations, in a variety of circumstances. Most of them are business-like in nature, focusing on the needs of the tenant, the property buyer, or the property seller. allservicerealestate.net

I've been a medical traveler for many years now and have had numerous occasions to review a large number of Travel Company web sites. Most of them contain some type of Q & A section that explains how they work and what they offer. I've found that the information given, while accurate, is very incomplete. penguintravel.net

The earliest form of leisure tourism can be traced as far back as the Babylonian and Egyptian empires. A museum of historic antiquities was open to the public in Babylon. The Egyptians held many religious festivals that attracted the devout and many people who thronged to cities to see famous works of arts and buildings. royalresidences.net

Buying a small business requires a tremendous amount of preparation. Successful and well managed businesses that are for sale are in short supply and a serious buyer will need to be well prepared prior to pursuing a purchase. This article outlines the process an entrepreneur should follow in such a pursuit. businessorganisers.net

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