Komu roboty zabiorą miejsca pracy?

Zmiany zachodzące na rynku pracy w krajach rozwiniętych bardzo silnie oddziałują na strukturę społeczną. Czasy, kiedy można było podobne procesy powstrzymywać, dawno jednak już minęły. Teraz można się jedynie do nich umiejętnie dostosować. Tylko jak?

Historia pełna jest przykładów, kiedy władze hamowały postęp ze względu na obawę o jego skutki społeczne. Cesarz Tyberiusz kazał zabić człowieka, który przedstawił mu wynalazek nietłukącego się szkła. Jeden z jego następców – Wespazjan – okazał się bardziej litościwy dla innowacyjnych poddanych, choć określenie go entuzjastą innowacji byłoby przesadą. Gdy zaproponowano mu nowatorską metodę transportu kamiennych kolumn do Rzymu, nie wyraził zgody na jej wprowadzenie, tłumacząc to tym, że pozbawiłaby ona pracy tysiące najbiedniejszych poddanych. Z kolei półtora stulecia później, gdy William Lee przedstawił Elżbiecie I swój, jak mu się wydawało wtedy, przełomowy wynalazek, reakcja monarchini także nie była entuzjastyczna. Nie tylko nie zgodziła się na przyznanie mu patentu na automatyczną maszynę dziewiarską, ale także zgromiła go słowami: „Mierzysz wysoko mistrzu Lee. Rozważ, jaki wpływ twój wynalazek mógłby mieć na moich biednych poddanych. Na pewno doprowadziłby ich do ruiny, pozbawiając zatrudnienia tak, że zostaliby żebrakami”.

Wbrew pozorom taka postawa z punktu widzenia władców była racjonalna. Z jednej strony bowiem autentycznie bali się, że część społeczeństwa na skutek innowacji zubożeje, z drugiej (co rzadziej przyznawali) obawiali się, że obywatele wzbogaceni na nowych technologiach mogą odebrać im siłę ekonomiczną, a z nią polityczne wpływy. O ile pierwszy problem ma charakter krótkookresowy, o tyle drugi często prowadzi do rewolucji skutkującej utratą władzy. Na szczęście począwszy od rewolucji angielskiej z 1688 roku kolejne kraje świata zaprzestawały powstrzymywania postępu technologicznego, co utorowało drogę rewolucji przemysłowej i bezprecedensowemu wzrostowi dobrobytu. Wyzwanie mistrza Lee jednak powraca w coraz to innych formach.

Czas komputerów

Od lat 80-tych w USA, a stopniowo także w innych krajach zaczęto masowo używać w różnych gałęziach gospodarki roboty i komputery. Znalazły one zastosowanie nie tylko w produkcji, ale także w sprzedaży, marketingu czy administracji. Wiele zawodów straciło rację bytu lub kompletnie zmieniło swoją formę. Za tym poszła oczywiście utrata dotychczasowych miejsc pracy. Nie zaowocowało to wprawdzie trwałym wzrostem bezrobocia, jednak wiele osób doświadczyło spadku lub stagnacji dochodów. Kogo najbardziej dotknęły zmiany i kogo dotkną w przyszłości?

Odpowiedzi na te pytania można udzielić, zastanowiwszy się, jakie prace mogą wykonywać komputery. Jeżeli bowiem maszyna jest w stanie coś robić, pozostaje jedynie kwestią czasu, kiedy zacznie robić to taniej niż człowiek. Na problem zawodów podatnych na „zniknięcie” ciekawe światło rzuca niedawno wydane przez amerykański think-tank Third Way opracowanie „Dancing with Robots”. Jego autorzy wskazują, że by zadanie mógł wykonać komputer, spełnione muszą zostać dwa warunki. Po pierwsze, warunek informacyjny: informacja konieczna do wykonania zadania musi być możliwa do zebrania w formie zdatnej do przerobu przez maszynę. Po drugie, warunek przetwarzania: proces przetwarzania informacji konieczny do wykonania zadania musi dać się zapisać w formie reguł.

Choć wraz ze wzrostem mocy obliczeniowych i wymyślaniem nowych algorytmów, coraz więcej zadań spełnia powyższe warunki, wciąż pozostało wiele takich, które prawdopodobnie długo jeszcze będą zarezerwowane dla człowieka. Weźmy choćby warunek informacyjny, który wydaje się prostszy do spełnienia. Zebranie informacji potrzebnych do wykonania prostego manualnego zadania, z którym ludzki mózg radzi sobie znakomicie, koordynując wzrok i ruch ciała, przekracza możliwości dzisiejszych robotów. Z tego powodu takie zawody jak mechanik samochodowy, masażysta czy dentysta, wymagające precyzji manualnej będą z nami jeszcze długo. Rola maszyn jest w nich przede wszystkim wspomagająca – sterowanie zarezerwowane jest dla człowieka.

Trudno nie zauważyć, że warunek informacyjny i warunek przetwarzania są ze sobą ściśle powiązane. Jeżeli bowiem udaje się w końcu umieścić w pamięci komputera odpowiednią ilość informacji potrzebnych do wykonania zadania, to często okazuje się, że jest ona na tyle znacząca, że problemem nie do rozwiązania staje się ich przetwarzanie. Tymczasem ludzki mózg z przetwarzaniem radzi sobie w sposób nadzwyczaj dobry, gdyż oprócz prostych reguł stosuje także nieustrukturowane metody oparte m. in. na skojarzeniach. Przewaga człowieka najlepiej odzwierciedla się w operowaniu językiem. Mimo iż ostatnio nastąpił olbrzymi postęp w rozpoznawaniu mowy, to komputery ani nie mówią, ani nie rozumieją, co się do nich mówi. Jedynie reagują lepiej lub gorzej na polecenia głosowe.

Druga rewolucja w fabryce Forda

Istnienie wielu obszarów, w których ludzkiej pracy nie da się zastąpić, jest sporym pocieszeniem, jednak trzeba nauczyć się także w nich sobie radzić, gdyż upowszechnienie się maszyn zmienia sposób wykonywania pracy. Tych zaś, którzy nie potrafią odnaleźć się ani w profesjonalnych zawodach nieosiągalnych dla komputerów, ani we współpracy z maszynami, czekają proste fizyczne prace. Tych wprawdzie także roboty nie potrafią jeszcze wykonywać, ale chętnych do ich wykonywania robi się niestety zbyt dużo, dlatego pensje w usługach takich jak fryzjerstwo, gastronomia, opieka, sprzątanie, itp. są niskie. Problem ten zapowiada interesujący przypadek opisywany w „Dancing with Robots”.

Pod koniec lat 70-tych Ford zaczął instalować w swoich samochodach elektroniczny wtrysk paliwa. Wywołało to szereg problemów związanych z naprawami gwarancyjnymi. Nie wynikły one bynajmniej z nadmiernej awaryjności nowych systemów, tylko z trudnościami mechaników z radzeniem sobie z nowym sprzętem, którego działania zupełnie nie rozumieli. Kierownictwo zdecydowało więc o przeprowadzeniu szkoleń i wydaniu certyfikatów uprawniających do wykonywania napraw silników Forda. Niestety połowa mechaników, którzy usiłowali uzyskać te uprawnienia nie była w stanie zdać egzaminu. Do tej pory bowiem uczyli się w praktyce od swoich kolegów, jak dokonywać napraw. Konieczność zmierzenia się z podręcznikami i elektroniczną diagnostyką okazała się dla wielu barierą nie do przekroczenia.

Przypadek ten ilustruje, jak rośnie na znaczeniu operowanie abstrakcyjną wiedzą, która pozwala lepiej dostosowywać się do nowych okoliczności, w tym konieczności współpracy z maszynami. Jak wspomniałem, przekłada się to wprost na zarobki pracowników. O ile jeszcze w 1980 roku w USA czterdziestolatek z dyplomem wyższej uczelni zarabiał tylko o 26% więcej niż jego odpowiednik bez dyplomu, to w 2009 roku jego przewaga wzrosła do 84%. Co więcej osoby bez wyższego wykształcenia doświadczyły w USA stagnacji lub nawet – jak w przypadku mężczyzn – spadku realnych dochodów.

Polska z pozoru wydaje się być zabezpieczona przed tym zjawiskiem. Czyż nie możemy się pochwalić jednym z najwyższych na świecie odsetków absolwentów studiów wyższych? Niestety sprawa nie jest taka prosta. W Polsce udało się przede wszystkim podnieść wskaźnik. Tymczasem nie liczy się, ile osób jest na studiach, tylko ile osób jest w stanie przyswajać przekazywaną na nich wiedzę. O tym ostatnim decyduje zaś posiadanie niezbędnych umiejętności podstawowych. Te zdobywa się na wcześniejszym etapie edukacji oraz w domu.

Amerykańskie badania pokazały na przykład, że różnorodność słownictwa, jakie słyszy dziecko w pierwszych dwóch latach życia ma bardzo duże znaczenie dla jego dalszego rozwoju, tworząc pożyteczne konteksty i powiązania znaczeniowe. O ile w tej sprawie rola rodziców jest decydująca, to umiejętności czytania ze zrozumieniem oraz logicznego i matematycznego rozumowania nabywane są głównie dzięki szkole. Międzynarodowe porównania wyników uczniów szkół średnich wcale nie napawają optymizmem. Polska znajduje się w nich w połowie stawki, wyprzedzając wprawdzie kraje rozwijające się, jednak pozostają mocno w tyle za liderami takimi jak Finlandia, Korea Południowa czy nawet Czechy. Poprawa funkcjonowania systemu szkolnictwa jawi się więc jako główna droga „ucieczki do przodu” przed robotami. Mam nadzieję, że nowa minister edukacji zdaje sobie sprawę jak wielka ciąży na niej odpowiedzialność.

Maciej Bitner
Główny Ekonomista Wealth Solutions
Kontakt dla mediów:
Piotr Suchodolski, piotr.suchodolski@wealth.pl
tel. kom. 512 965 658
 

Powyższy tekst stanowi wyraz osobistych opinii i poglądów autora i nie powinien być traktowany jako rekomendacja kupna bądź sprzedaży papierów wartościowych.

Dodano: 2013-12-02 09:19:47

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I'd like , please azolol 5mg stanozolol (british dispensary) Not all of the players linked to Biogenesis in media reports face discipline, sources have told The News. Two former Yankees — Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera and Oakland A’s pitcher Bartolo Colon — will not be punished because they already have been suspended as a result of their links to Biogenesis and its owner, self-styled “biochemist” Anthony Bosch. clindamycin phosphate topical solution usp 1 pledgets "Every day, we get intelligence and action is taken as perthat intelligence and many attacks averted. But the fact thatyou get the intelligence does not mean something cannot happen,"the senior official added. cytoxan orders Fund changes can seem a little complicated, but remember that they represent a potential opportunity for you to be invested more appropriately than you may be currently. So don't ignore them – make the most of them instead. trental generic Plaintiffs lawyers say they have been giving more attentionlately to whistleblower awards under FIRREA. But the small sizeof the potential award for FIRREA complaints makes it lessattractive for potential whistleblowers to step forward and risktheir careers and reputations on a case, some lawyers say. who sells zenerx The band thought it would be fun to record the event and pulled out their cell phones only to be yelled at by the club’s management. Still, the boys continued to snap photos and take videos of their adventure.
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